Are you seeing headlines about San Bernardino home prices and wondering what they really mean for your next move? You are not alone. The numbers can feel abstract until you know how to read them together. In this guide, you will learn how to understand the four key housing metrics and how to apply them to your timing, pricing, and negotiations. Let’s dive in.
Why San Bernardino trends matter
San Bernardino is a large, diverse city with many micro-markets. Neighborhoods and zip codes can move at different speeds, and property types often follow their own paths. When you read local trends, you get clearer on where demand is strongest and where buyers or sellers have leverage. That understanding can save you time, stress, and money.
Core metrics to watch
Median sale price
The median sale price is the middle price among all closed sales in a period. Half of the sales are above that price and half are below. Rising medians often suggest stronger demand or a shift toward higher-priced sales. Falling medians can signal softening demand, more inventory, or a tilt toward lower-priced sales.
Use it for month-to-month and year-over-year comparisons. Watch for mix shifts. If one month has more condos and the next has more single-family homes, the median can move without a true change in market pressure. In San Bernardino, segment by property type, bedroom count, and sub-market to keep the view accurate.
Days on market
Days on market measures the time from listing to an accepted contract. Shorter days often mean a competitive market or a sharp price that attracts quick offers. Longer days can point to overpricing, weaker demand, or property condition issues.
Listing practices can affect this number. Relisting or price resets may reduce the reported days on market. Seasonality also matters. Days on market often lengthen in winter and shorten in spring and summer.
Months of supply
Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell current active listings at the recent sales pace. A simple way to think about it is active listings divided by average monthly closed sales. Low supply, often under four months, usually favors sellers. A balanced market often sits around four to six months. Higher levels often favor buyers.
This number depends on how active listings are counted. It can also swing with short-term bursts in listings or sales. Use rolling averages and look by price range and property type. In San Bernardino, inventory can differ by zip code and price band, so drill down where you can.
List-to-sale ratio
The list-to-sale ratio is the sale price divided by the list price, expressed as a percentage. Above 100 percent suggests homes are selling over list. Near 100 percent is close to asking. Under 100 percent often means buyers negotiated below list or the home was overpriced.
Understand whether the ratio uses the original list price or the last list price. If a seller reduced the price before the sale, a ratio based on the original list can exaggerate the negotiating gap. To get the full picture, pair this ratio with days on market and inventory levels.
Analyze trends the smart way
Segment the data
Look at citywide numbers, then zoom into zip codes, neighborhoods, and MLS areas. Break results out by single-family vs. condo or townhouse, and by price tier. When counts are low, combine several months to reduce noise.
Time windows that work
Month-to-month changes capture fresh movement but can be noisy. A three-month moving average helps smooth the bumps. Year-over-year comparisons remove seasonality and help you see real trend direction. For negotiation, favor comps from the most recent 30 to 90 days when possible.
Seasonality and local drivers
Expect stronger activity in spring and summer and slower months in late fall and winter. Broader factors like mortgage rates, inflation, and lending standards can change buyer power quickly. Local jobs, commuting patterns, and new construction also affect demand within the city.
Data sources that help
The most precise, up-to-date view typically comes from the local MLS. Statewide associations provide helpful county and regional context. County public records validate closed prices but may lag. Online dashboards are useful for visualization, but methods vary, so confirm definitions before comparing sources.
Read signals together
One metric on its own can mislead. Read them in combination to understand the story.
- Rising median price, shorter days on market, lower months of supply, and list-to-sale above 100 percent often signal a strong sellers’ market.
- Falling median price, longer days on market, higher months of supply, and list-to-sale under 100 percent often signal a buyers’ market.
- Mixed signals mean you should segment by property type, price band, and zip code, and check seasonality.
Scenario A: Cooling signs
- Median price is down from last year.
- Months of supply rises from tight to closer to balanced.
- Days on market lengthen and the list-to-sale ratio slips below 100 percent.
- Takeaway: buyers gain leverage, more price reductions appear, and sellers should price with care.
Scenario B: Hot pocket
- Citywide supply looks balanced, but a specific zip code shows very low inventory.
- Days on market are a single digit and the list-to-sale ratio tops 100 percent in that area.
- Takeaway: the city can look steady overall while a micro-market is highly competitive. Target your pricing and offer strategy to the zip code, not just the city average.
Put trends to work
For buyers
Use the last 60 to 90 days of comparable sales in the same micro-neighborhood and condition. If days on market are rising and the list-to-sale ratio has dipped below 100 percent for similar homes, you may have room to negotiate. A practical approach is to reference average sale-to-list gaps, recent price reductions, and time on market for your set of comps.
If you are entering a hot pocket, prepare for speed. Short days on market and a list-to-sale ratio above 100 percent suggest strong demand. Consider a clean, complete offer, tight timelines, and funds verification to stand out.
For sellers
When months of supply is climbing and days on market are stretching, a market-level list price can help you capture early attention. Pricing above recent neighborhood medians often leads to longer market times and more concessions when the market cools. If local signals show fewer multiple offers, plan for a fallback that includes credits, timeline flexibility, or minor repairs so you stay in control.
When signals conflict
If the median price is rising while months of supply also rises, you may be seeing a mix shift toward higher-end sales while the broader market softens. Segment by property type and price tier to find the truth for your specific home search or listing. Always anchor decisions in your most recent, relevant comps.
Quick checklist
Use this short list before you make a move in San Bernardino:
- Confirm your data source and date range, and define the geography.
- Segment by property type, price range, and zip code when possible.
- Use a three-month average for smoother trends and year-over-year for seasonality.
- Note how days on market are measured and how list-to-sale is defined.
- Support any market claim with at least three indicators, such as median price, inventory, and days on market.
Ready to talk strategy?
You do not need to decode the data alone. With 25-plus years of local experience and a proven track record across the Inland Empire, Casey can break down the numbers for your exact neighborhood and price range, then translate them into a smart plan. If you want clarity on timing, pricing, and negotiations, connect with Casey Garduno for a free consultation.
FAQs
What does median sale price mean in San Bernardino?
- It is the middle sale price for a set period and helps you see trend direction, but it must be paired with days on market and inventory to avoid mix-shift bias.
How many months of supply is a buyers’ or sellers’ market?
- Around four to six months is often balanced, under four tends to favor sellers, and above six tends to favor buyers, with local context and seasonality in mind.
Why do days on market change with the seasons?
- Activity typically rises in spring and summer and slows in late fall and winter, which naturally shortens or lengthens the time a home stays on market.
How recent should comps be for San Bernardino negotiations?
- Aim for the last 30 to 90 days within the same micro-neighborhood and similar condition, then add a 6 to 12 month view for broader trend context.
Why do different sites show different median prices?
- Data coverage, definitions, and methods vary by source, such as whether they include pending sales or how they handle outliers, so always confirm the methodology.
What if citywide trends and my zip code do not match?
- Trust the segment that matches your target property type and location, since micro-markets can run hotter or cooler than the city average.
